Bitcoin next year: where will this bullrun end?

When my wife and I took an Uber this weekend for a restaurant visit with a befriended South American couple, the driver started talking about Bitcoin during the ride. My usual reaction was one of: that’s quite nice, until I thought back to the famous ‘Wall Street Cheat Sheet’ and I pondered on how far we had already progressed in this Bitcoin bull run given that my taxi driver was talking about it (usually a signal I should take profits). I looked it up and luckily others did the math for me. We still have while to go, but let’s keep an eye out for short but very heavy pullbacks.

Cheat Sheet

The famous Wall Street Cheat Sheet chart explains the psychology of a bull run for virtually any investment.

From an initial period where only wealthy investors step up, to a phase with hobbyists who have to wait a few years to see growth. This is often followed by a first bull run after which the general public hears about it. Then everyone jumps on it and the initial rich investors sell their share, after which a first moment of panic follows. After a short but strong pullback (the so-called bear trap), newer (late) investors also enter, after which we climb for a short while and ultimately crash. Several years of walking through the desert tend to follow, after which the cycle starts again.

This is also the case for Bitcoin. The bull runs of 2017-2018 were followed by a very bad 2019 and a disastrous first half of 2020. The bull run which lasted from the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2022 was followed by a disastrous second half of 2022 and a bad first half of 2023. The current bull run started at the end of 2023 (when Bitcoin was trading for $40,000 approximately) and we have already gotten about 120% higher since then.

Where will this end and how high can we go?

In 2017, Bitcoin rose some 150% above its previous all-time high before correcting by 40%. Similarly, during the 2020 2021 bull run, Bitcoin gained 120% and later fell 35%. Each successive bull run seems to be slightly smaller than the previous one.

Based on those figures, and knowing that we were looking at a record $69,000 last time round (in 2021-2022), we would end up by around 100 to 120% compared to the pervious ATH. Hence it should run until the second half of next year with a price somewhere between $140,000 and $170,000.

However, in previous bull runs, the American boomers did not participate and there were no ETFs that provided additional volume. Positive analysts therefore claim that 2025 could be a very interesting year and that we could potentially end up with a price of $200,000.

I count on a possible price of $140,000 by the second half of 2025. Much depends on the realization of the crypto promises of the Trump administration and the geopolitical situation.