$76k Bitcoin – How high can the Trump-trade push crypto and stock markets?

The Trump trade is in full swing. In summary, that should be good news Bitcoin and crypto markets, good for Elon Musk and Peter Thiel companies, good for Ross Ulbricht, bad for Mexico, Germany and China and disastrous for Ukraine and Taiwan.

Bitcoin already posted another ATH overnight of $76k.

Let’s go over it one more time what you can expect if Trump does what he promised.

July

We first talked about the Trump trade in July of this year already, when Donald Trump was ahead in the polls (and Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee).

For Bitcoin and crypto, the “Trump trade” rests on two data points: Trump is the more pro-crypto candidate of the two and his policies will make assets like Bitcoin more attractive to the rest of the world. So it made sense that analysts even at that time (Bitcoin was trading at $57,000 at the time) expected a Bitcoin price of $80,000 by the end of the year.

Bitcoin is expected to rise steadily following the appointment of Donald Trump as so-called ‘president-elect’, but look out for January 2025 when he will officially propose his policies. ‘Crypto bros’ will tend to take profits if the new Republican president doesn’t immediately do what he promised (the release of Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, the firing of SEC boss Gary Gensler and the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the United States).

Trump has previously pledged to make the US the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world”.

Stocks that would normally do well under the Trump trade are the companies of Trump backers such as Elon Musk (Tesla) and Peter Thiel (Palantir).

Geopolitics

Of course, there are also consequences for the global economy. Countries such as Mexico and China will feel a serious brake on their exports due to the promised import tariffs.

According to the initial analysis, Germany will subsequently experience a heavier recession than predicted (German car makers will probably have to deal with higher import tariffs for the American market) and Ukraine and Taiwan will probably no longer be able to count on the respective arms supplies from and protection by the United States.

After all, from now on it will be ‘America First’ again, so money for Ukraine will be very difficult to come by.